China Plans to Bolster Its Slowing Economy
By KEITH BRADSHER, New-York Times, October 21, 2008
The Chinese government has begun drafting tax and spending policies to stimulate the economy after third-quarter growth of 9 percent, the slowest pace since an outbreak of SARS in 2003.
Industrial production and construction slackened from July through September because of weak exports, a slumping real estate market and temporary restrictions imposed during the Olympics, the National Bureau of Statistics announced on Monday.
China’s State Council, or cabinet, met over the weekend and decided to shift the emphasis toward maintaining “a stable and rapid economic development,” the state-controlled media reported on Monday. The previous policy had been “to ensure growth and control inflation.”
As part of the new policy, the State Council announced that it would increase export tax rebates for things as varied as labor-intensive products like garments and textile to high-value products like mechanical and electrical products. Banks will be encouraged to lend more money to small and medium-size enterprises and support programs will be drafted to help farmers.
Government agencies will also spend more to rebuild earthquake-damaged areas of southwestern China, to improve transportation links and other infrastructure and to improve the social welfare system, the official Xinhua news agency said, without providing details.
Hu Angang, a prominent Chinese economist who is the director of the Center for China Studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing, said in an interview on Friday that the government was drafting plans to step up its spending on vocational training and other educational programs for adults. The goal is to help China’s workers move away from low-wage, low-skill assembly line tasks in export-oriented factories and to provide these workers with the skills necessary for an internationally competitive economy that balances the service and manufacturing sectors.
“The government needs to give consideration to human capital investment,” Mr. Hu said.
Chinese officials maintain that their country will suffer only limited harm from the global financial crisis, mainly through slower exports. “Our economy remains vigorous and has the capability to defend itself against international risks,” Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said on Friday.
Increased export tax rebates will make Chinese exports even more competitive in the United States and Europe, particularly as China has intervened in currency markets to halt any further appreciation of China’s currency since mid-June. With the United States heavily dependent on China to buy the Treasury bonds needed to finance a bailout of the American financial system, the Bush administration has stopped criticizing China’s trade and currency policies.
Policy makers in almost any country except China would be delighted with 9 percent growth, particularly given the financial turmoil that was worsening at the end of the third quarter.
But China faces a particularly acute need to maintain high growth rates. Its cities are growing by nearly 20 million people a year because of migration from lower-income rural areas.
Most economists estimate that 8 percent growth is needed to prevent urban unemployment from rising, which could ignite demonstrations and undermine the country’s social stability.
Clement Chen, the chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries, which represents the employers of 10 million workers in mainland China, said that the policies chosen by the State Council would reduce the number of factory bankruptcies and layoffs likely in the months ahead. But he predicted the policies would not halt the overall deterioration in business prospects for exporters in China.
“The worst impact, the worst situation, is not here yet,” he said. “I do believe 2009 will be worse than 2008.”
Corporate executives from cities across China said in interviews last week at the Canton Fair in Guangzhou and the Global Sources consumer electronics show in Hong Kong that while layoffs were rising, joblessness did not yet appear to be a serious problem.
Many laid-off migrant workers in export-reliant regions like Guangdong province, next to Hong Kong, have returned to their home villages, because high food prices have made farming more remunerative. Others are finding jobs in inland cities that depend more on consumer demand within China.
Workers are not yet lining up outside factory gates in search of work, as they did a decade ago. But they are nonetheless becoming easier to find and hire, said Bill Chen, a sales manager at the Tinly Jieyang Electro-Acoustic Devices Company, which makes automotive stereo speakers in Shenzhen that recently halved its work force to 100 employees.
“At the beginning of this year, it was quite hard, but now it is not difficult,” Mr. Chen said of finding workers.
Employees interviewed last month at three locations in Dongguan, a factory city in Guangdong, agreed that jobs were still available.
Standard Chartered warned in a research report Monday that economic growth would continue to weaken, from 11.9 percent last year to 9.6 percent for all of this year, 7.9 percent next year and just 7.1 percent in 2010. The bank noted that the State Council’s plans stopped short of calling for government spending, while the broad goals enunciated by the State Council with few specifics may mean that the government will not act swiftly.
Some economists had suggested in August that the forced closing of many factories during the Olympics, to provide cleaner air for the athletes, had been the main factor behind the beginnings of weaker economic activity. But extensive statistics released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics pointed to a much broader pattern of weaker growth than could be explained by the Beijing Olympics.
Many factories, power plants and other operations reopened in the Beijing area last month. Yet industrial production expanded less briskly in September, rising 11.4 percent from a year earlier, than in August, when it grew 12.8 percent.
China has more options than most countries to cope with slower growth. Inflation is slowing at the consumer level — the government said on Monday that it was 4.6 percent in September, down from 4.9 percent in August and the fifth monthly decline.
With less to fear from rising prices, China’s central bank has already begun reducing regulated interest rates and loosening restrictions on bank lending, even though these steps could result in an expansion of the money supply and an increase in inflationary pressures. With the government running a large budget surplus, the finance ministry has begun lowering taxes on stock market transactions.
“We expect the Chinese government to continue to loosen policies on the back of fast-slowing activity growth and dissipating inflationary pressures,” said Hong Liang, an economist in the Beijing office of Goldman Sachs, in a research note Monday.
Growth of 9 percent in the third quarter was slower than most economists had expected. Surveys of economists’ expectations for the past quarter had found average forecasts of anywhere from 9.1 to 9.7 percent, depending on which economists were included and when they were asked.
Output in the third quarter of this year was the least strong since the economy expanded 7.9 percent in the second quarter of 2003, when an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome temporarily closed many businesses.
The Chinese government has begun drafting tax and spending policies to stimulate the economy after third-quarter growth of 9 percent, the slowest pace since an outbreak of SARS in 2003.
Industrial production and construction slackened from July through September because of weak exports, a slumping real estate market and temporary restrictions imposed during the Olympics, the National Bureau of Statistics announced on Monday.
China’s State Council, or cabinet, met over the weekend and decided to shift the emphasis toward maintaining “a stable and rapid economic development,” the state-controlled media reported on Monday. The previous policy had been “to ensure growth and control inflation.”
As part of the new policy, the State Council announced that it would increase export tax rebates for things as varied as labor-intensive products like garments and textile to high-value products like mechanical and electrical products. Banks will be encouraged to lend more money to small and medium-size enterprises and support programs will be drafted to help farmers.
Government agencies will also spend more to rebuild earthquake-damaged areas of southwestern China, to improve transportation links and other infrastructure and to improve the social welfare system, the official Xinhua news agency said, without providing details.
Hu Angang, a prominent Chinese economist who is the director of the Center for China Studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing, said in an interview on Friday that the government was drafting plans to step up its spending on vocational training and other educational programs for adults. The goal is to help China’s workers move away from low-wage, low-skill assembly line tasks in export-oriented factories and to provide these workers with the skills necessary for an internationally competitive economy that balances the service and manufacturing sectors.
“The government needs to give consideration to human capital investment,” Mr. Hu said.
Chinese officials maintain that their country will suffer only limited harm from the global financial crisis, mainly through slower exports. “Our economy remains vigorous and has the capability to defend itself against international risks,” Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said on Friday.
Increased export tax rebates will make Chinese exports even more competitive in the United States and Europe, particularly as China has intervened in currency markets to halt any further appreciation of China’s currency since mid-June. With the United States heavily dependent on China to buy the Treasury bonds needed to finance a bailout of the American financial system, the Bush administration has stopped criticizing China’s trade and currency policies.
Policy makers in almost any country except China would be delighted with 9 percent growth, particularly given the financial turmoil that was worsening at the end of the third quarter.
But China faces a particularly acute need to maintain high growth rates. Its cities are growing by nearly 20 million people a year because of migration from lower-income rural areas.
Most economists estimate that 8 percent growth is needed to prevent urban unemployment from rising, which could ignite demonstrations and undermine the country’s social stability.
Clement Chen, the chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries, which represents the employers of 10 million workers in mainland China, said that the policies chosen by the State Council would reduce the number of factory bankruptcies and layoffs likely in the months ahead. But he predicted the policies would not halt the overall deterioration in business prospects for exporters in China.
“The worst impact, the worst situation, is not here yet,” he said. “I do believe 2009 will be worse than 2008.”
Corporate executives from cities across China said in interviews last week at the Canton Fair in Guangzhou and the Global Sources consumer electronics show in Hong Kong that while layoffs were rising, joblessness did not yet appear to be a serious problem.
Many laid-off migrant workers in export-reliant regions like Guangdong province, next to Hong Kong, have returned to their home villages, because high food prices have made farming more remunerative. Others are finding jobs in inland cities that depend more on consumer demand within China.
Workers are not yet lining up outside factory gates in search of work, as they did a decade ago. But they are nonetheless becoming easier to find and hire, said Bill Chen, a sales manager at the Tinly Jieyang Electro-Acoustic Devices Company, which makes automotive stereo speakers in Shenzhen that recently halved its work force to 100 employees.
“At the beginning of this year, it was quite hard, but now it is not difficult,” Mr. Chen said of finding workers.
Employees interviewed last month at three locations in Dongguan, a factory city in Guangdong, agreed that jobs were still available.
Standard Chartered warned in a research report Monday that economic growth would continue to weaken, from 11.9 percent last year to 9.6 percent for all of this year, 7.9 percent next year and just 7.1 percent in 2010. The bank noted that the State Council’s plans stopped short of calling for government spending, while the broad goals enunciated by the State Council with few specifics may mean that the government will not act swiftly.
Some economists had suggested in August that the forced closing of many factories during the Olympics, to provide cleaner air for the athletes, had been the main factor behind the beginnings of weaker economic activity. But extensive statistics released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics pointed to a much broader pattern of weaker growth than could be explained by the Beijing Olympics.
Many factories, power plants and other operations reopened in the Beijing area last month. Yet industrial production expanded less briskly in September, rising 11.4 percent from a year earlier, than in August, when it grew 12.8 percent.
China has more options than most countries to cope with slower growth. Inflation is slowing at the consumer level — the government said on Monday that it was 4.6 percent in September, down from 4.9 percent in August and the fifth monthly decline.
With less to fear from rising prices, China’s central bank has already begun reducing regulated interest rates and loosening restrictions on bank lending, even though these steps could result in an expansion of the money supply and an increase in inflationary pressures. With the government running a large budget surplus, the finance ministry has begun lowering taxes on stock market transactions.
“We expect the Chinese government to continue to loosen policies on the back of fast-slowing activity growth and dissipating inflationary pressures,” said Hong Liang, an economist in the Beijing office of Goldman Sachs, in a research note Monday.
Growth of 9 percent in the third quarter was slower than most economists had expected. Surveys of economists’ expectations for the past quarter had found average forecasts of anywhere from 9.1 to 9.7 percent, depending on which economists were included and when they were asked.
Output in the third quarter of this year was the least strong since the economy expanded 7.9 percent in the second quarter of 2003, when an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome temporarily closed many businesses.