Are African leaders abandoning Mugabe ?
Zimbabwe is back again at the international scene, with Harare's government this time being cornered in all fronts, including, to Mugabe's dismay, by what may be an African front.
The opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leadership's sudden decision to withdraw from the ballot-box, just five-days before the elections begin on June 27, 2008, compounds the already tense situation in Zimbabwe even further. Curiously, MDC's Morgan Tsvangirai's withdrawal announcement was timed to coincide with a meeting of the United Nations Security Council in New York, chaired by Britain.
The Council placed blame of reported violence against MDC supporters squarely on Mugabe's government and called for postponement of the upcoming elections, while the Secretary General of the United Nations Ban Ki Moon told reporters on Tuesday in New York he favoured scrapping the election, saying condition was not conducive for elections to be held.
"Conditions do not exist for free and fair elections right now in Zimbabwe," Mr. Ban said. "There has been too much violence, too much intimidation. A vote held in these conditions would lack all legitimacy."
An earlier version by the Council wanted to recognize Tsvangirai as the "legitimate" president of Zimbabwe. It was watered down, according to Associated Press.
The Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) says in yesterday's meeting in Swaziland for the elections to be called off, citing the environment was not free and fair.
"If the election were to be held under present circumstances, it would compromise the credibility and legitimacy of the results," said a statement released by King Mswati III, Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete and a representative of Angolan Prime Minister, Fernando dos Santos.
The MDC claims 86 of its supporters have been killed while 20, 000 others have been forced out of their homes, it said, by militias reportedly loyal to Mugabe's Zanu-PF party. However, on Thursday the state-owned Herald said MDC-T senator-elect Kariba John Malaba "has been arrested in connection with violence that left scores of Zanu-PF supporters injured."
Major Western news outlets, such as BBC, CNN, etc, have noticeably stepped-up pressure on Zimbabwe in the run-up to election. Yesterday Former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright argued on CNN that Mugabe was worse than the late tyrant of Iraq, Saddam Hussein, which America toppled and executed. Saddam was accused of murdering thousands of Kurds buried in mass graves.
Western governments, Bush, Brown and Queen Elizabeth, all spoke staunchly against Mugabe, to the extent the Queen stripped Mugabe of "His Knighthood," an honor given to him when he enjoyed rosy relations with Britain before undertaking the controversial land reform in 2000.
Meanwhile, on the African front, Jacob Zuma (JZ), president of the ruling African National Congress party of South Africa has grown vocal in his criticism of Mugabe.
"The situation in Zimbabwe has gone out of hand, out of control... We cannot agree with what (the ruling) ZANU-PF is doing at this point in time," Zuma said at an investment conference. His comments made one Zimbabwean analyst to say, without referencing his name, that Zuma was trying to "build his CV," considering his precarious stand in South Africa.
Before being elected ANC president, Zuma, popular amongst ordinary South Africans, was accused and acquitted of rape but stands accused of corruption involving arms deal. To the Western business establishment, JZ is seen as more of a threat, especially that he receives most of his support from leftist organizations and unions, such as Congress of South African Trade Unions, COSATU.
Zuma's success thus far attributes to Mbeki's image problem, seen as "elitist," out of touch with the ordinary South Africans with his centralist, business-as-usual style of leadership. Hence, Zuma could be stepping up criticism against Mugabe to salvage his tainted image internationally by kowtowing to the Western countries who want Mugabe out. Zuma also wants dissociate himself from what is seen as Thabo Mbeki's "soft, quiet diplomacy" on Zimbabwe. Because of Mbeki's approach, Bush once referred to him as Mugabe's "point man."
While in London for his 90th birthday celebrations, the former president of South Africa, Nelson Mandela, given a lavish welcome by the Queen of England and British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown added his voice against Mugabe. He said there was a "tragic failure of leadership" in Zimbabwe, to which the audience applauded.
Mugabe's enemies understand their efforts to topple his government, they call "regime", are futile unless they are legitimated by prominent Africans, such as Desmond Tutu, Mandela, Jacob Zuma, and the list goes on, least should they be accused of recolonizing Zimbabwe. Mandela, voted greatest African of all times in 2003 in a survey by New African, he, who retired from politics nine years ago and has remained quiet on Zimbabwe since, broke his silence yesterday. His criticism of Mugabe at his birthday party, in London, may appear like a clever ploy by the British who badly needed such a comment from him.
"Unwise decision that they ever made"
The Zimbabwean Electoral Commission, ZEC, who were only formally informed by MDC a day after the opposition announced their pullout from the elections through the media, said Friday's elections were to continue as planned. "It was unanimously agreed that the withdrawal had, inter alia, been filed well out of time and that for that reason the withdrawal was of no legal force or effect.
"Accordingly, the commission does not recognise the purported withdrawal. We are, therefore, proceeding with the presidential run-off election this Friday as planned. The ballot papers have been printed and dispatched. We are advising Mr Tsvangirai accordingly," a statement by ZEC president read in part.
Despite ZEC's announcement, Tsvangirai warns if Mugabe went ahead without postponing the vote, time for negotiations was over, he told a British paper.
Professor Jonathan Moyo, former information minister in President Mugabe's government now one of his most vocal critics, said "while Tsvangirai had deprived Mugabe of the legitimacy he craves, he was gambling on his political career as well," Herald said. A commentator writing in the BBC website said Mugabe was the winner and MDC's boycott was a gamble. He added that Tsvangirai's choice of Dutch embassy as his sanctuary, was also a mistake, as it lends credence to Mugabe's claim that Tsvangirai is a product of Western powers, British, America and its allies.
"It is the most unwise decision that they have ever made," Moyo said in an interview. "How can they withdraw five days before the election and yet people were being beaten and killed all along?" Moyo said Tsvangirai had made an unfortunate decision as he had been assuring his supporters that "no amount of violence or intimidation would stop the opposition from romping to victory."
Professor Welshman Ncube, a senior official in the rival MDC faction led by Arthur Mutambara, backs MDC-T's pullout, saying it was the right thing to do. "He didn't have a choice. Where in the world have you seen an election in which only one of the candidates is allowed to campaign? Mugabe is the only one who was campaigning, using state resources and security forces. How on earth do you have an election in which both of the candidates say even if I lose I won't accept the result," Ncube said.
What could MDC do after Mugabe?
Robert Mugabe sees the situation in his country as Africa's fight. In an interview with the London-based New African Magazine in May 2007, he said Zimbabwe's cause was Africa's. "The success of Zimbabwe is [Africa's] success. And we don't live in isolation, we are not an extension of Europe, we are part of Africa, and so really our stand, as a fight, should be seen as an African cause," he said.
Mugabe, who led a liberation struggle against racist English minority rule of Ian Smith, reminds Africans that it was only yesterday when Britain colonized Zimbabwe. Mugabe argued at a 2007 UN Summit that they [Britain and her allies] have no legitimacy to preach human rights, saying Africans in Zimbabwe fought for human rights. To the contrary, though, the meltdown of economy in Zimbabwe as a result of Western led sanctions, according to ruling Zanu-PF, the West says it is due to Mugabe's misrule, has had adverse effects on the people of Zimbabwe.
Even when many are ideologically loyal to Mugabe, the economic conditions are grim and people may want change irrespective of whether MDC carries a Western agenda or not. It remains to be seen whether voters will turn-out on Friday and Mugabe gets the boost it badly needs.
It also is unclear whether a military invasion of Zimbabwe would be authorized if Mugabe tightens his grip on power, as he has been referred to as "Hitler." To which he says, "Hitler in Zimbabwe has one objective -- sovereignty for his people, recognition of their independence and their rights to freedom. If they say I am Hitler, let me be Hitler ten-fold and that's what we stand for."
Mugabe would prefer to see the likes of Zumas, Mandelas, etc, to not see only authoritarianism on his part, but also the opposition's propaganda machine and what he calls a plan for the West to effect "regime change" and reverse the land reforms program.
But Mugabe warns, not so fast. "Let us be clear on this one - no one else can do it except ourselves. Even those who might promise that they will give us lots of money if we abide by regime change, in the end will never honour their promises," he told New African in 2007. As far as Robert Mugabe is concerned "this is the last fight for the total liberation of Zimbawe. Zimbabwe will never be a colony again." But will African leaders leave Mugabe by the wayside?