Japan fears losing out to China in relations with US

Japan's leaders believe that they are becoming increasingly "isolated" from Washington as the United States forges closer ties with China.

By Julian Ryall in Tokyo -15 Feb 2009

A senior adviser to the Tokyo government said that it is concerned that the developing defence relationship between Washington and Beijing means the US is ceding its role of peacekeeper in the Far East to China.

Speaking ahead of the arrival in Japan today (MON) of Hillary Clinton, on her first overseas trip as US secretary of state, a leading defence analyst said that plans to redeploy 8,000 US marines based in Japan have left Tokyo anxious that its old ally is no longer as committed to the region.

"The US is busy elsewhere so they're giving greater leeway and co-operating with China to keep the peace in the Far East," said the analyst, who asked not to be identified.

Chinese and US warships already work in tandem and share intelligence in antipiracy operations off the east coast of Africa.

President Barack Obama has made no secret of his plans to engage with China, and Mrs Clinton is due to meet Chinese leaders during her regional tour.

Tokyo fears a new era of "Japan passing", in which Washington not only sees Beijing as its main economic ally in the region but also its key defence partner.

Japan annually calls on the Chinese government to be transparent in its military spending, which Beijing says rose from $52 billion (£36 billion) in 2007 to $61 billion in 2008. But there are new concerns in Tokyo as China will this year lay down the keels of two aircraft carriers and has secretly constructed an underground base for nuclear submarines on the southern tip of Hainan Island.

Beijing has also recently deployed DF31 intercontinental ballistic missiles, a solid-fuel, nuclear-capable weapon that replaces the ageing liquid-fuelled variants and provides a powerful second-strike capability.

There was a close sense of trust between the former Japanese prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi, and the administration of President George W. Bush, the analyst said, but those links no longer exist. "Japan's strategic and defence officials feel very isolated," he said.

Japan and China recently sent warships to each other's shores on goodwill visits, yet Japan remains reluctant to push the pace of a relationship that has been even in the recent past very troubled.

The two countries are embroiled in territorial disputes over islands in the East China Sea and a row about natural resources beneath the seabed, while Beijing frequently refers to Japan's brutal occupation in the 1930s and 1940s.

An American official in Tokyo said that "the US is looking at members of the international community to play appropriate roles in issues that affect all members of that community".